Pictet Perspectives 2020 – the year of the zodiac

In 2020, like the calendar, the sequence of events will be key. We believe a recession will be avoided – although potential accidents will make this tentative, as the global economy slows and political risks remain elevated.

Pictet Investment Summit

The Pictet Investment Summit is designed as a forum where a range of internal and external experts present their visions of the investment landscape.

The Entrepreneurs

Video highlights from Pictet’s latest Entrepreneurs Summit in Geneva.

Value stocks start to make a comeback

Markets have reached new highs, but looking beneath the surface reveals a more complex picture.

Towards ‘Chinafication’

With growth indicators faltering and markets unsettled, policy makers in advanced economies are being forced to look at new ways to prolong the expansion. In many ways, their concerns are the same as their Chinese counterparts’. Could (Should) they also adopt a Chinese economic policy style?

What can investors do in uncertain times?

While a global recession may not be imminent, we are clearly late in the cycle and economies and markets are not immune from accidents. Certain well-defined investment themes are particularly relevant at this juncture, argues Pictet Wealth Management’s head of investments.

Opposing Forces

Markets find themselves caught between opposing forces: on the one hand an ageing economic cycle and continued trade tensions; on the other, central banks intent on prolonging growth as long as possible, according to Christophe Donay, Chief Strategist and Head of Asset Allocation, Pictet Wealth Management. This tug of war, high valuations and evidence a lot of good news has already been priced in, mean we expect equities to trade sideways in the near term.

In Conversation With Cesar Perez Ruiz

Head of investments and CIO at Pictet Wealth Management, César Pérez Ruiz says that something has to give when it comes to investment in 2019. While he expects economic growth to uptick in the second half of the year, the current climate of markets moving out of fear and geopolitical uncertainty – in particular the evolving relationship between China and the US – isn’t without its opportunities, especially if you’re prepared to trade fast and look for unintended consequences. For Latin American families, portfolio diversification is the key.

In Conversation with Rahaf Harfoush

Anthropologist Rahaf Harfoush was in the Bahamas for 2019’s Latam Family Office Master Class to enlighten Latin American families on how shifting technology consumption is affecting how we interact with each other and redefining our belief systems. Despite the challenges for companies and individuals when it comes to navigating fake data and adapting to a new digital ethical landscape, she also argues that there are plenty of investor prospects, in terms of emerging digital markets that often start out on the fringes of the internet.

What we are watching for now

Equity markets have reached new highs, extending the longest bull market in US history. However, César Pérez Ruiz, Head of Investments and CIO at Pictet Wealth Management, is conscious of complacency in markets and keeping protection on portfolios as tail risks remain. Geopolitical developments such as the potential escalation of Iranian tensions and drawn-out trade negotiations between the US and China, could send short-term volatility through markets.

What to expect from central banks this year

Following the Fed’s recent dovish turn, we could expect other central banks to follow suit. However, according to Frederik Ducrozet, Strategist at Pictet Wealth Management, the ongoing trade tensions and idiosyncratic constraints facing central banks today could limit their room to manoeuvre. We expect the European, Japanese and Chinese central banks to contribute to rising global liquidity this year, more than offsetting any quantitative tightening by the Fed.

The “Three Amigos”

2018 was a difficult year for markets and according to César Pérez Ruiz, Pictet Wealth Management’s Head of Investments and CIO, 2019 will be a year in which the “three amigos” will have to coexist. The bull will appear in economic deceleration, the bear in a democratic recession and the kangaroo across market dynamics.

In conversation with Claus Kjeldsen

Consumers have today what Claus Kjeldsen, CEO of the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies (Cifs), calls a “liquid identity”. This means trying to classify consumers by age and gender is no longer effective, and so Cifs studies future trends and scenarios through the lens of social and behavioural science, economics and technology. At the fifth Entrepreneur Summit in Geneva, Claus discussed how so-called strategic adaptation can be applied to inform guests on opportunities for growth and investment.